Released cohort 2ogs-ncrd-release-2026-09-07 · announced 07 Sept 2026, 23:35 UTC · joined by row_key, equivalently (zip, route_code) on 08 Sept 2026, 00:58 UTC · read from source 12 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC

Every number tells you whether it was measured or modeled.

192,981 carrier routes on the sellable surface — the released 2OGS cohort, nothing else. 22,467 further routes are named below with the reason they are excluded, and none of them is counted, estimated or quietly folded in.

Look up a state Read the honesty report

Live envelope · read from the released cohort at 12 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC UTC

Released routes (sellable surface)

192,981

Every figure on this site derives from these rows

Measured

Rows served and attributed

195,436

Released plus every named exclusion — no residue

Measured

Excluded, named with reason

22,467

Never counted, never zeroed, never sold

Unknown

What we used to publish — labeled history, not a live figure

Historical · not live

We used to publish 233,675 US routes. 40,694 of them came out when the data was held to the standard this page exists to demonstrate.

Source of the old figure: USPS carrier-route roster identity, as carried in MEC's NCRD granularity serve (total_routes). This is the figure this site published before the released-cohort standard was applied.
Vintage: 2026-02 roster vintage · counts window 2026-08-25
Relationship to the current figure: The roster is a list of routes that exist. The released cohort (192,981) is the set whose rows survived the join, the band requirement and the exclusion rules. No share of the roster is published anywhere on this site.

Withheld

186

Withheld upstream on the ZIP-set flat multi-route test. Never served as route-level evidence.

Permanently off the sellable surface.

Missing confidence band

113

Sparse, model-data-thin routes — 46 rural, 37 highway, 30 city — whose modeled figures arrived without a confidence band. A value without a band is a failed read, not a partial one, and we invent no bands.

Permanently excluded, never back-filled.

Not in return

2,156

Genuine USPS-rostered routes (2026-02 roster vintage, 2026-08-25 counts window) absent from the released 2OGS return. Named, not silently dropped and not silently included. A supply-refresh request to 2OGS is on file.

Permanently excluded pending a supply refresh.

Gate-rejected

20,012

Quarantined by 2OGS before release. Neither ingested, inferred nor back-filled by the relay — absent, never zero.

Never entered the released cohort.

What a modeled figure must carry

Modeled

A modeled value without its full envelope is a failed read, not a partial one: we refuse the value and name the refusal. We never publish a national or per-state average of a modeled column, because a confidence band cannot be averaged away.

Required on every modeled value: acs_modeled, covariate_basis, confidence_low, confidence_high
Covariate basis / vintage: acs_2019_2023_5yr_route_apportioned
Source path — per-route figures with bands: https://owaggydbtywlmgfwvqtz.supabase.co/functions/v1/route-demographics/{state}/{county}
Source path — this envelope: https://owaggydbtywlmgfwvqtz.supabase.co/functions/v1/ncrd-granularity

Open a county to see each route's measured counts, and each modeled figure with its confidence band, covariate basis and source path attached.

Class A · 12 columns

Measured

USPS deliverable counts

Counted by USPS at carrier-route level. Never affected by the demographic contamination.

Counted rows owe no confidence band.

Class C · 30 columns

Modeled

Income, education & behaviour

Permanently modeled. ACS is published at block group and no finer, so no route-level value of these can be measured from any source, at any date.

Band + covariate basis required per value · acs_2019_2023_5yr_route_apportioned

Class B · 19 columns

Modeled

Population & household structure

ZIP+4 to decennial block placement. The decennial is a 100% count; the placement is not yet graded, so this class is labeled modeled until it is.

Band + covariate basis required per value · acs_2019_2023_5yr_route_apportioned

State by state

Released routes per state, with the rows the released-cohort run refused and the rule each refusal was named under.

State	Released routes	Received	Refused (named)
CaliforniaCA	21,236	23,467	2,231(9.5%)
TexasTX	15,781	17,799	2,018(11.3%)
FloridaFL	12,201	14,164	1,963(13.9%)
New YorkNY	12,044	13,471	1,427(10.6%)
IllinoisIL	9,295	10,094	799(7.9%)
PennsylvaniaPA	9,128	10,939	1,811(16.6%)
OhioOH	7,888	9,172	1,284(14.0%)
MichiganMI	6,846	7,901	1,055(13.4%)
New JerseyNJ	6,244	6,807	563(8.3%)
GeorgiaGA	6,176	8,274	2,098(25.4%)
North CarolinaNC	5,853	7,323	1,470(20.1%)
VirginiaVA	5,439	8,481	3,042(35.9%)
MissouriMO	4,916	5,727	811(14.2%)
MassachusettsMA	4,835	6,348	1,513(23.8%)
IndianaIN	4,510	5,018	508(10.1%)
WashingtonWA	4,501	4,788	287(6.0%)
WisconsinWI	4,455	4,761	306(6.4%)
TennesseeTN	4,377	5,611	1,234(22.0%)
AlabamaAL	3,962	3,969	7(0.2%)
MarylandMD	3,581	5,798	2,217(38.2%)
ArizonaAZ	3,531	3,575	44(1.2%)
KentuckyKY	3,352	3,598	246(6.8%)
South CarolinaSC	3,115	3,676	561(15.3%)
IowaIA	2,997	3,119	122(3.9%)
ColoradoCO	2,775	2,986	211(7.1%)
ArkansasAR	2,405	2,447	42(1.7%)
MississippiMS	1,942	3,594	1,652(46.0%)
LouisianaLA	1,907	2,584	677(26.2%)
West VirginiaWV	1,699	3,103	1,404(45.2%)
UtahUT	1,626	1,722	96(5.6%)
KansasKS	1,562	1,676	114(6.8%)
OklahomaOK	1,491	1,550	59(3.8%)
MaineME	1,265	2,480	1,215(49.0%)
New MexicoNM	1,209	1,265	56(4.4%)
MinnesotaMN	1,168	1,205	37(3.1%)
South DakotaSD	845	950	105(11.1%)
Rhode IslandRI	801	3,719	2,918(78.5%)
NebraskaNE	792	881	89(10.1%)
New HampshireNH	747	1,188	441(37.1%)
ConnecticutCT	743	2,937	2,194(74.7%)
NevadaNV	698	724	26(3.6%)
HawaiiHI	697	1,095	398(36.3%)
VermontVT	632	670	38(5.7%)
District of ColumbiaDC	563	3,029	2,466(81.4%)
MontanaMT	512	679	167(24.6%)
DelawareDE	400	3,801	3,401(89.5%)
IdahoID	110	147	37(25.2%)
North DakotaND	45	46	1(2.2%)
OregonOR	42	42	0
AlaskaAK	22	789	767(97.2%)
WyomingWY	20	167	147(88.0%)

Released routes are rows the released-cohort run matched against the published 2OGS manifest and wrote. Refused rows are named under their rule — held-in-other-state or not-in-released-cohort — and are not on the sellable surface. Nothing on this table is a share of the USPS roster.