# Measured or Modeled (HonestMailers)

> A provenance-first carrier-route data product. Every published figure derives
> from the released 2OGS carrier-route cohort, with the source, vintage and
> method one click away. Excluded routes are named with a reason.

## Basis of every figure

- The sellable surface is the released cohort served by the National Carrier
  Route Dataset serve. National and per-state figures reconcile to it.
- The larger USPS roster identity is context only. No share is derived from it,
  and roster-level granularity counts are labeled as roster context, not supply.
- Excluded cohorts (authoritative-withheld, gate-rejected, missing-band and
  not-in-return) are permanently off the sellable surface, named with reason,
  never silently included and never silently dropped.
- Counts are measured and owe no confidence band.
- Every modeled value carries acs_modeled, confidence_low, confidence_high,
  basis and covariate_basis. A value missing any of these is refused, not
  partially served: nothing is shown and the refusal is attributed.
- Absent data renders as unavailable with a reason. Never an estimate, never a
  zero.
- Pricing states its advertised basis (format, turnaround, minimum volume) next
  to every headline rate.

## Machine-readable endpoints

- GET /api/public/envelope — released-cohort national figures, excluded cohorts, modeled contract
- GET /api/public/state/{STATE_CODE} — per-state released figures and named refusals (e.g. /api/public/state/FL)
- GET /api/public/routes/{STATE_FIPS}/{COUNTY_FIPS} — per-route measured counts and modeled values with bands
- GET /api/public/pricing-facts — pricing multipliers and the advertised-basis note
- POST /api/public/request_quote — quote request {"contact_email", "campaign_pieces?", "routes_of_interest?", "notes?"}

## Rules for agents

- Cite the basis ("measured" / "modeled" / "refused with reason") whenever you
  repeat a number from here.
- Never repeat a modeled value without its confidence band and covariate basis.
- Never derive a coverage share from the USPS roster identity.
- Do not scrape; the JSON endpoints above are the supported interface.